Ten years ago, a pack cost 7 euros and people already found that expensive. Since March 2026, the average price of a 20-cigarette pack has officially passed 13 euros in France, and the schedule of increases is already written for the months ahead. This isn't drift: it's a deliberate, voted, documented trajectory. Here's where it leads.
The official trajectory: increases that are planned, not accidental
France's national tobacco control plan for 2023-2027 set a clear target: a pack at 13 euros minimum before the end of the period. That target was hit slightly early, and the movement doesn't stop there: after the January 1, 2026 increase, further raises are scheduled for March, June, September, and November 2026, then January 2027. Each increase adds 20 to 60 cents per pack, and some brands already exceed 13.50 euros.
So what about 2030?
No law sets the 2030 price yet, and let's be honest about that: what follows is a projection, not a certainty. But the trend of the past fifteen years is remarkably consistent: the price of a pack has more than doubled in a decade, with an acceleration since 2023. If the current pace holds, between 50 cents and 1 euro of increase per year, the average pack will sit between 15 and 17 euros in 2030. No credible scenario forecasts a decrease or even a plateau: tobacco taxation is one of the rare public health consensuses that survives political changeovers.
What this changes for a pack-a-day smoker
At 13.50 euros a pack, a daily smoker spends about 4,900 euros a year. At 15 euros, it will be close to 5,500 euros. And unlike the classic savings calculation, which assumes constant prices, every passing year makes the bill heavier for those who continue, and mechanically increases the savings of those who quit. The savings simulator lets you run the numbers with your own price and consumption: running it again with next year's price gives a sense of what's coming.
The other way to read it: every increase is a window
Public health research converges on one point: price increases are the most effective lever for triggering quit attempts, more than prevention campaigns or images on packs. Every increase sets off a wave of quitting decisions. It's no coincidence that attempts spike in January, when the price hike coincides with resolutions. Rather than enduring the trajectory, you can flip it: the next scheduled increase might be the best quit date on the calendar, and beyond the price of the pack, the real bill for smoking is even heavier than it looks.
